He was a trailblazing educator who launched the much-lauded Indonesia Mengajar movement and who continued to make waves when he entered the political scene. Even as an independent, Anies Baswedan had a high-profile political career, including a term as Jakarta governor and a bid for Indonesia’s presidency. But now his political career seems to have come to a standstill. Where goes Anies from here?
A glaring absence from the candidate roll in the Jakarta gubernatorial race is Anies Baswedan, the former Jakarta governor who helmed Indonesia’s capital through a trying period that included the COVID-19 pandemic and a global economic slowdown.
It seemed like the natural choice for him to stand once again in the Jakarta gubernatorial race after his defeat in the 2024 presidential election.
But the lack of support he received from prominent political parties – a necessity in Indonesia’s electoral guidelines – put him out of the running.
So where does the man who led Indonesia’s capital for the past five years and then made a bid for the highest office in the land go now?
It seems like Anies, who started his political career as an independent forging a path for himself without the backing of political heavyweight, must now find a new way forward – once again on his own.
And the path will be an uphill one, given the challenges he faces securing support from fractured political parties with different agendas and interests.
The surprise runner-up
When the three candidates for the 2024 presidential election were locked in as
Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan, early expectations were that it would be a head-on race between Prabowo – backed by his Gerindra Party – and Ganjar – the candidate supported by the ruling party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – with Anies coming in a distant third.
Instead, as the campaign period came to an end, the fight seemed to come down to Prabowo and Anies.
Defying expectations, Anies – who is not a member of a political party, a rarity for candidates aiming for high-level positions in Indonesia – garnered 25 per cent of the votes to Prabowo’s 59 per cent. Ganjar lagged behind with only 16.47 per cent of the votes.
While Ganjar’s PDI-P is the largest party in the House of Representatives, Ahmad Khoirul Umam, a political analyst from Paramadina University, pointed out that Anies had three strong parties in his coalition.
Having The National Awakening Party (PKB), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and National Democratic Party (NasDem) in his corner meant that the party machinery backing him in the presidential election had a larger base of supporters than Ganjar’s.
“Secondly, Anies and his runningmate, Muhaimin Iskandar, have a clear political stance and position in opposing the current administration by promoting a narrative of change,” Umam said.
In contrast, he added, Ganjar’s position could come across as unclear as he put forth mixed messages: he wanted continuity from the previous rule – but he also called for change.
When Anies’ presidential bid failed, supporters urged him to continue his political career by standing in the Jakarta gubernatorial election once more. Even analysts deemed him as a popular choice.
“Anies’s chances of leading Jakarta (again) are very high,” Nana Saehuna, a political observer from Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN), told KBA News in May.
To run in the gubernatorial race, Anies would have to fulfil certain requirements with the Jakarta Provincial Election Commission – most importantly, securing sufficient support from political parties.
In May, things seemed to be going his way.
“I have indeed received invitations from political parties to be nominated as governor. I am currently considering whether to run again or not; I am seriously weighing this decision,” Anies said on May 19 2024.
News started coming in that month of support pouring in for Anies from several Parties such as PKB, PKS, and NasDem – the three parties in the coalition that supported his presidential bid some months ago.
The rollercoaster ride to the Jakarta governor’s race
At first, things seemed rosy.
Anies had his backers for the Jakarta governor’s race, and analysts also media reports consistently named him as the top candidate for the post, considering his good track record in his first term as governor.
He entered politics with a sterling reputation from his years as an educator, launching the Indonesia Mengajar program – a non-governmental educational movement that invites the nation’s top graduates to volunteer as teachers, placing them in villages across the country’s remote areas – to much praise.
And as Jakarta Governor, he’d left his mark in various ways: inaugurating memorable projects such as the iconic bus stop at the bustling roundabout near Hotel Indonesia, and the beautiful Phinisi pedestrian bridge in Sudirman; revitalizing Tebet Eco Park; and steering the capital through the COVID-19 pandemic.
Surveys conducted about his time as governor were generally positive. One by Lembaga Survei Indonesia recorded a performance satisfaction rating of about 81 per cent in him, while another by Populi Centre reported that over 83 per cent of respondents were satisfied with his work.
But solid though his reputation might have been among the general public, he was on less solid ground with his political backers.
Cracks soon started forming as disagreement and discontent started brewing between the parties supporting him.
PKS declared that its party member Sohibul Iman, would be Anies’s runningmate and demanded PKB and NasDem back this pairing. If not, it said it would withdraw support of Anies.
This was a demand PKB and NasDem saw as unfair – they had, after all, been hoping for one of their members to be paired with Anies.
But their influence paled compared to PKS.
This was because Jakarta General Electoral Commision (KPU) rules meant that a party could only put up candidates for governor and vice-governor, if it had at least 22 seats in the Regional Parliament for each party.
If a party had less than 22 seats, they would have to form a coalition with another party – which has bred a climate of horse trading and alliances in Indonesia’s political system.
PKB and NasDem only had 10 seats each. PKS had more – 18, but even then they fell short.
This meant Anies’ most influential political supporter was PKS. If he found just one more party with at least four seats to join up with PKS and support him, he’d be able to run for Jakarta governor again.
But PKS made clear that he would have to find a party that would support Sohibul.
As the registration date of 27 August 2024 approached, Anies still could not manage to broker common ground among the three parties supporting him.
PKS issued him an ultimatum: either secure another party willing to join up with them as a coalition to nominate Anies-Sohibul for governor and vice-governor, or they would withdraw their support and look for different candidate to back.
When Anies failed to bring a new party in, PKS walked away – eventually joining up with a coalition that included 12 other parties such as Gerindra and Golkar.
NasDem and PKB later followed suit, joining the same coalition as they saw a greater chance of victory for a candidate backed by large coalition.
The coalition would go on to nominate former West Java governor and Golkar member Ridwan Kamil as its candidate for Jakarta governor, and Suswono, a senior PKS member who previously served as a minister in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s cabinet, as his runningmate.
Fresh hope for Anies
There still seemed to be some hope for Anies in the Jakarta gubernatorial election.
Just a day after the coalition that included Anies’ former backer announced they would be putting up Ridwan as their candidate, on 20 August 2024, the Constitutional Court approved a judicial review on threshold requirements for candidates running for regional elections.
Instead of a candidate needing the support of parties with at least 22 seats, they could be backed by parties that make up at least 7.5 per cent of the vote share in Jakarta Provincial Parliament.
This meant that PDI-P, which has 15 seats but holds 14 per cent of the votes in the Jakarta Provincial Parliament could nominate its own candidate.
There was media speculation on whether Anies and PDI-P would strike a deal to allow him to run in the governor’s race.
But political observers noted that the possibility of the two uniting would be slim as PDI-P usually wanted to put up its own members as a candidate for the important positions, especially in PDI-P strongholds such as Jakarta, Bali and Central Java, while Anies was likely to stand firm on remaining an independent figure by not becoming a party member.
And, they pointed out, PDI-P has other options they would be more likely to back, including Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, or Ahok, a PDI-P member who was Anies’ predecessor in the Jakarta governor’s office – and who Anies defeated in the fraught 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election.
And sure enough, the conflict in political styles and interests between Anies and PDI-P could not be resolved.
As the deadline for nominations approached, PDI-P did not name Anies as their candidate – instead choosing to support Cabinet Secretary and PDI-P member Pramono Anung.
Rumours of a West Java gubernatorial run
There still seemed to be some hope for Anies in the Jakarta gubernatorial election.
With his path to the Jakarta governor’s office closed, rumours began to emerge that PDI-P would instead nominate him as their candidate for West Java governor.
And speculation only mounted after several PDI-P elites came forward to confirm Anies’ candidacy in West Java, claiming he’d be paired with Ono Surono, the chair of the West Java PDIP Regional Representative Council (DPD).
In fact, on 29 August 2024, Ketut Sustiawan, Secretary of the West Java DPD PDI-P, even gave the media a detailed breakdown of what would happen.
“At 9.30pm, Anies will be at the Regional Office Council (DPD) PDIP in Bandung, West Java, and at 10pm, he will together register to KPU West Java region,” he said.
Anticipation grew, with hundreds of West Java PDI-P members gathering at the party’s regional office in Bandung to wait for Anies’ arrival.
Rumours continued to spread. He’d be arriving by high-speed train from Jakarta, some said; others claimed he’d be flying in by helicopter. None of this came to pass.
At midnight, Anies – still in Jakarta – informed the media he would not be running at all in the 2024 local elections, not for any position.
Ono Surono said the partnership failed because of the ‘invisible hand’. He blamed figures referred to as “Mulyono and the gang”.
Mulyono is Jokowi’s actual given name – but he was a sickly child, and his parents changed his name to Joko Widodo, which means “safe and prosperous boy”.
His old name is often invoked by PDI-P members and now by critics to refer negatively to Jokowi, whose relationship with PDI-P has worsened since the presidential campaign.
What lies ahead
It seems like Anies might have run out of political steam, with many in the public believing he has been sidelined by kingmakers in Indonesia who dislike him because they worry him winning the Jakarta election might give him more support and traction in the run up to the 2029 presidential election.
The power kingmakers – prominent figures who no longer hold government positions but who continue to pull strings behind the scenes, influencing whether a politician thrives or fails – is well-known in Indonesia.
Political analysts say that these “prominent powers” do not want Anies to re-enter the political stage right now, as a position now could serve as a stepping stone for him to stand in the next presidential election. They’ve already seen his popularity in the 2024 presidential election – and do not want him to be a challenger again in 2029.
“Anies is not being given space because I believe that if Anies wins the Jakarta regional election this year, he could also run in the 2029 presidential election. It’s no longer a secret and widely known that Anies’ candidacy is not wanted by “kingmakers” who have already influenced many political parties,” said Ujang Komaruddin, a political analyst from Al-Azhar Indonesia University.
This is nothing new to Anies, who has made a name for himself as an independent. He’s familiar with being a political outsider.
And like he did at the start of his political career, he will find a way forward.
Now, he is mulling how he can continue to play a role in shaping politics and activism for the better by forming a new party or establishing a mass organisation.
Anies during a live broadcast on his personal YouTube account in August spoke about the importance of keeping up the momentum of the appetite for change that has become clear in the presidential race and in the months after it.
To do so, “building a mass organisation or forming a new party might be the path we take,” he said.
His spokesman Sahrin Hamid confirmed this, telling MillionaireAsia that Anies does indeed have plans to establish a new mass organisation.
“The community will be launched in the near future,” he says, adding that the organisation will focus on education, social issues and advocacy for rights.
“The preparations are almost complete. We are just waiting for the right time. When? We cannot confirm that yet,” Sahrin says.
If, one day Anies decides to start his own political party, he will face some daunting obstacles, including manpower and funding, say political observers.
Political analyst Hendri Satrio, the founder of the Public Opinions Study Group (Kedai Kopi) points out that there are already a wealth of political parties in Indonesia; 24 political parties were registered for the 2024 general election.
But, said Hendri, Anies’ performance in the presidential election shows that he has a strong voter base that could shake up elections in the future.
“About 20 per cent of the votes can be converted into followers for his new party,” said Hendri, although he noted that Anies’ party would have to work hard to distinguish itself in an already crowded political arena.
The new president has only just been inaugurated, but already there is chatter on whether Anies will find a way to contest in the next presidential election – years away still, in 2029.
Analysts say Anies will have to ponder his possible path to the presidential nomination and tread wisely in the years leading up to 2029.
“Will Anies be a dark horse in 2029? This depends on his political choices. I think this will be challenging for Anies because he can’t be part of Prabowo’s cabinet, and hasn’t joined a political party, making it difficult for him to become a prominent figure in the 2029 presidential race,” said Arifki Chaniago, a political analyst from Aljabar Strategic.
Anies stands at a crossroads in the next stage of his political journey. And people are watching and waiting for a man who spent most of the recent years in the spotlight to make his next move.
Hot off the press
Women are finding – and creating – more space and opportunities to make themselves seen, heard and valued in workplace and in society. They’re breaking barriers, shattering glass ceilings, and paving the way for a more equitable society.
In our Aug/Sept 2024 issue, we shine the spotlight on women. We look at how far women’s rights and opportunities have come in Malaysia, and speak to outstanding and accomplished women who have made waves with their grit, hard work and heart.
What’s Next for Anies Baswedan?
He was a trailblazing educator who launched the much-lauded Indonesia Mengajar movement and who continued to make waves when he entered the political scene. Even as an independent, Anies Baswedan had a high-profile political career, including a term as Jakarta governor and a bid for Indonesia’s presidency. But now his political career seems to have come to a standstill. Where goes Anies from here?
A glaring absence from the candidate roll in the Jakarta gubernatorial race is Anies Baswedan, the former Jakarta governor who helmed Indonesia’s capital through a trying period that included the COVID-19 pandemic and a global economic slowdown.
It seemed like the natural choice for him to stand once again in the Jakarta gubernatorial race after his defeat in the 2024 presidential election.
But the lack of support he received from prominent political parties – a necessity in Indonesia’s electoral guidelines – put him out of the running.
So where does the man who led Indonesia’s capital for the past five years and then made a bid for the highest office in the land go now?
It seems like Anies, who started his political career as an independent forging a path for himself without the backing of political heavyweight, must now find a new way forward – once again on his own.
And the path will be an uphill one, given the challenges he faces securing support from fractured political parties with different agendas and interests.
The surprise runner-up
When the three candidates for the 2024 presidential election were locked in as
Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan, early expectations were that it would be a head-on race between Prabowo – backed by his Gerindra Party – and Ganjar – the candidate supported by the ruling party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – with Anies coming in a distant third.
Instead, as the campaign period came to an end, the fight seemed to come down to Prabowo and Anies.
Defying expectations, Anies – who is not a member of a political party, a rarity for candidates aiming for high-level positions in Indonesia – garnered 25 per cent of the votes to Prabowo’s 59 per cent. Ganjar lagged behind with only 16.47 per cent of the votes.
While Ganjar’s PDI-P is the largest party in the House of Representatives, Ahmad Khoirul Umam, a political analyst from Paramadina University, pointed out that Anies had three strong parties in his coalition.
Having The National Awakening Party (PKB), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and National Democratic Party (NasDem) in his corner meant that the party machinery backing him in the presidential election had a larger base of supporters than Ganjar’s.
“Secondly, Anies and his runningmate, Muhaimin Iskandar, have a clear political stance and position in opposing the current administration by promoting a narrative of change,” Umam said.
In contrast, he added, Ganjar’s position could come across as unclear as he put forth mixed messages: he wanted continuity from the previous rule – but he also called for change.
When Anies’ presidential bid failed, supporters urged him to continue his political career by standing in the Jakarta gubernatorial election once more. Even analysts deemed him as a popular choice.
“Anies’s chances of leading Jakarta (again) are very high,” Nana Saehuna, a political observer from Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN), told KBA News in May.
To run in the gubernatorial race, Anies would have to fulfil certain requirements with the Jakarta Provincial Election Commission – most importantly, securing sufficient support from political parties.
In May, things seemed to be going his way.
“I have indeed received invitations from political parties to be nominated as governor. I am currently considering whether to run again or not; I am seriously weighing this decision,” Anies said on May 19 2024.
News started coming in that month of support pouring in for Anies from several Parties such as PKB, PKS, and NasDem – the three parties in the coalition that supported his presidential bid some months ago.
The rollercoaster ride to the Jakarta governor’s race
At first, things seemed rosy.
Anies had his backers for the Jakarta governor’s race, and analysts also media reports consistently named him as the top candidate for the post, considering his good track record in his first term as governor.
He entered politics with a sterling reputation from his years as an educator, launching the Indonesia Mengajar program – a non-governmental educational movement that invites the nation’s top graduates to volunteer as teachers, placing them in villages across the country’s remote areas – to much praise.
And as Jakarta Governor, he’d left his mark in various ways: inaugurating memorable projects such as the iconic bus stop at the bustling roundabout near Hotel Indonesia, and the beautiful Phinisi pedestrian bridge in Sudirman; revitalizing Tebet Eco Park; and steering the capital through the COVID-19 pandemic.
Surveys conducted about his time as governor were generally positive. One by Lembaga Survei Indonesia recorded a performance satisfaction rating of about 81 per cent in him, while another by Populi Centre reported that over 83 per cent of respondents were satisfied with his work.
But solid though his reputation might have been among the general public, he was on less solid ground with his political backers.
Cracks soon started forming as disagreement and discontent started brewing between the parties supporting him.
PKS declared that its party member Sohibul Iman, would be Anies’s runningmate and demanded PKB and NasDem back this pairing. If not, it said it would withdraw support of Anies.
This was a demand PKB and NasDem saw as unfair – they had, after all, been hoping for one of their members to be paired with Anies.
But their influence paled compared to PKS.
This was because Jakarta General Electoral Commision (KPU) rules meant that a party could only put up candidates for governor and vice-governor, if it had at least 22 seats in the Regional Parliament for each party.
If a party had less than 22 seats, they would have to form a coalition with another party – which has bred a climate of horse trading and alliances in Indonesia’s political system.
PKB and NasDem only had 10 seats each. PKS had more – 18, but even then they fell short.
This meant Anies’ most influential political supporter was PKS. If he found just one more party with at least four seats to join up with PKS and support him, he’d be able to run for Jakarta governor again.
But PKS made clear that he would have to find a party that would support Sohibul.
As the registration date of 27 August 2024 approached, Anies still could not manage to broker common ground among the three parties supporting him.
PKS issued him an ultimatum: either secure another party willing to join up with them as a coalition to nominate Anies-Sohibul for governor and vice-governor, or they would withdraw their support and look for different candidate to back.
When Anies failed to bring a new party in, PKS walked away – eventually joining up with a coalition that included 12 other parties such as Gerindra and Golkar.
NasDem and PKB later followed suit, joining the same coalition as they saw a greater chance of victory for a candidate backed by large coalition.
The coalition would go on to nominate former West Java governor and Golkar member Ridwan Kamil as its candidate for Jakarta governor, and Suswono, a senior PKS member who previously served as a minister in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s cabinet, as his runningmate.
Fresh hope for Anies
There still seemed to be some hope for Anies in the Jakarta gubernatorial election.
Just a day after the coalition that included Anies’ former backer announced they would be putting up Ridwan as their candidate, on 20 August 2024, the Constitutional Court approved a judicial review on threshold requirements for candidates running for regional elections.
Instead of a candidate needing the support of parties with at least 22 seats, they could be backed by parties that make up at least 7.5 per cent of the vote share in Jakarta Provincial Parliament.
This meant that PDI-P, which has 15 seats but holds 14 per cent of the votes in the Jakarta Provincial Parliament could nominate its own candidate.
There was media speculation on whether Anies and PDI-P would strike a deal to allow him to run in the governor’s race.
But political observers noted that the possibility of the two uniting would be slim as PDI-P usually wanted to put up its own members as a candidate for the important positions, especially in PDI-P strongholds such as Jakarta, Bali and Central Java, while Anies was likely to stand firm on remaining an independent figure by not becoming a party member.
And, they pointed out, PDI-P has other options they would be more likely to back, including Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, or Ahok, a PDI-P member who was Anies’ predecessor in the Jakarta governor’s office – and who Anies defeated in the fraught 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election.
And sure enough, the conflict in political styles and interests between Anies and PDI-P could not be resolved.
As the deadline for nominations approached, PDI-P did not name Anies as their candidate – instead choosing to support Cabinet Secretary and PDI-P member Pramono Anung.
Rumours of a West Java gubernatorial run
There still seemed to be some hope for Anies in the Jakarta gubernatorial election.
With his path to the Jakarta governor’s office closed, rumours began to emerge that PDI-P would instead nominate him as their candidate for West Java governor.
And speculation only mounted after several PDI-P elites came forward to confirm Anies’ candidacy in West Java, claiming he’d be paired with Ono Surono, the chair of the West Java PDIP Regional Representative Council (DPD).
In fact, on 29 August 2024, Ketut Sustiawan, Secretary of the West Java DPD PDI-P, even gave the media a detailed breakdown of what would happen.
“At 9.30pm, Anies will be at the Regional Office Council (DPD) PDIP in Bandung, West Java, and at 10pm, he will together register to KPU West Java region,” he said.
Anticipation grew, with hundreds of West Java PDI-P members gathering at the party’s regional office in Bandung to wait for Anies’ arrival.
Rumours continued to spread. He’d be arriving by high-speed train from Jakarta, some said; others claimed he’d be flying in by helicopter. None of this came to pass.
At midnight, Anies – still in Jakarta – informed the media he would not be running at all in the 2024 local elections, not for any position.
Ono Surono said the partnership failed because of the ‘invisible hand’. He blamed figures referred to as “Mulyono and the gang”.
Mulyono is Jokowi’s actual given name – but he was a sickly child, and his parents changed his name to Joko Widodo, which means “safe and prosperous boy”.
His old name is often invoked by PDI-P members and now by critics to refer negatively to Jokowi, whose relationship with PDI-P has worsened since the presidential campaign.
What lies ahead
It seems like Anies might have run out of political steam, with many in the public believing he has been sidelined by kingmakers in Indonesia who dislike him because they worry him winning the Jakarta election might give him more support and traction in the run up to the 2029 presidential election.
The power kingmakers – prominent figures who no longer hold government positions but who continue to pull strings behind the scenes, influencing whether a politician thrives or fails – is well-known in Indonesia.
Political analysts say that these “prominent powers” do not want Anies to re-enter the political stage right now, as a position now could serve as a stepping stone for him to stand in the next presidential election. They’ve already seen his popularity in the 2024 presidential election – and do not want him to be a challenger again in 2029.
“Anies is not being given space because I believe that if Anies wins the Jakarta regional election this year, he could also run in the 2029 presidential election. It’s no longer a secret and widely known that Anies’ candidacy is not wanted by “kingmakers” who have already influenced many political parties,” said Ujang Komaruddin, a political analyst from Al-Azhar Indonesia University.
This is nothing new to Anies, who has made a name for himself as an independent. He’s familiar with being a political outsider.
And like he did at the start of his political career, he will find a way forward.
Now, he is mulling how he can continue to play a role in shaping politics and activism for the better by forming a new party or establishing a mass organisation.
Anies during a live broadcast on his personal YouTube account in August spoke about the importance of keeping up the momentum of the appetite for change that has become clear in the presidential race and in the months after it.
To do so, “building a mass organisation or forming a new party might be the path we take,” he said.
His spokesman Sahrin Hamid confirmed this, telling MillionaireAsia that Anies does indeed have plans to establish a new mass organisation.
“The community will be launched in the near future,” he says, adding that the organisation will focus on education, social issues and advocacy for rights.
“The preparations are almost complete. We are just waiting for the right time. When? We cannot confirm that yet,” Sahrin says.
If, one day Anies decides to start his own political party, he will face some daunting obstacles, including manpower and funding, say political observers.
Political analyst Hendri Satrio, the founder of the Public Opinions Study Group (Kedai Kopi) points out that there are already a wealth of political parties in Indonesia; 24 political parties were registered for the 2024 general election.
But, said Hendri, Anies’ performance in the presidential election shows that he has a strong voter base that could shake up elections in the future.
“About 20 per cent of the votes can be converted into followers for his new party,” said Hendri, although he noted that Anies’ party would have to work hard to distinguish itself in an already crowded political arena.
The new president has only just been inaugurated, but already there is chatter on whether Anies will find a way to contest in the next presidential election – years away still, in 2029.
Analysts say Anies will have to ponder his possible path to the presidential nomination and tread wisely in the years leading up to 2029.
“Will Anies be a dark horse in 2029? This depends on his political choices. I think this will be challenging for Anies because he can’t be part of Prabowo’s cabinet, and hasn’t joined a political party, making it difficult for him to become a prominent figure in the 2029 presidential race,” said Arifki Chaniago, a political analyst from Aljabar Strategic.
Anies stands at a crossroads in the next stage of his political journey. And people are watching and waiting for a man who spent most of the recent years in the spotlight to make his next move.
Hot off the press
Women are finding – and creating – more space and opportunities to make themselves seen, heard and valued in workplace and in society. They’re breaking barriers, shattering glass ceilings, and paving the way for a more equitable society.
In our Aug/Sept 2024 issue, we shine the spotlight on women. We look at how far women’s rights and opportunities have come in Malaysia, and speak to outstanding and accomplished women who have made waves with their grit, hard work and heart.
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